This responds to RQ1: how land use will need to change to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate climate change, while also achieving other environmental goals. This project recognises that issues of mitigation and adaptation (see WP C3.3) are interdependent, thus, the activities in the two WPs are interleaved (see the Technical Approach) so that WP C3.1 is contextualised by C3.3 and vice versa. WP C3.1 integrates a wide range of spatial modelling (map data and systems models) from previous SRPs and Topic C5 to create opportunity and risk maps for alternative land uses under current and future climate regimes. The spatial analysis will consider both current and future capability for agricultural, forestry and sporting use but also what the mix of land uses, and their intensity, implies for the basket of ecosystem goods and services delivered at a range of scales (national, regional, landscape). The analysis will also link farm structure data with the mapping of ecosystem goods and services to be able to contextualise biophysical analysis with other drivers of change such as business viability (C3-SRUC), land manager behaviour (B3) and changes in tenure or ownership (E3). These components will underpin multi-objective analyses: diagnostic (how much change is needed); normative (how an agreed objective can be delivered while minimising unintended consequences); simulation of options (what if) or defining the structure of trade-offs between objectives.
